GDP is expected soon in Canada, and it’s expected to show a contraction of 0.6%. There are three reasons why it could surprise to the upside. Here’s why. Canada publishes its GDP on monthly basis. This is unique. While the consensus is for a contraction of 0.6%, some conditions have improved lately, and could indicate a surprise, even showing growth rather than contraction. US has stabilized: American Economy seems to have stabilized: Canada is very dependent on the US. It exports lots of good to its neighbor down south. Housing data in the US has stabilized and even risen from the bottom. This has been seen in various housing indicators, as well in Core Durable Goods Orders. So, a stronger America means a better off Canada. Rise in Oil Prices: Oil Prices have risen lately. Oil traded lately above $50, after drifiting in the low 40s earlier this year. Canada, being an exporter of oil, benefits from the bottoming of oil prices. This is a major factor in GDP, something that should add to growth. Forex Market: USD/CAD has declined today. It now trades at 1.25, falling from 1.2650, the peak yesterday. In previous events that involved the Canadian dollar, the market had a good notion about how the data would turn out. This happened with Trade Balance in particular. USD/CAD to your mobile So, all these factors together bring me to a conclusion that Canadian GDP could surprise to the upside. I’ll update this post when the data is published to see if my prediction was right or wrong. Oh Canada! Update 12:42 GMT: Canadian GDP fell by 0.7%, slightly lower than everybody, including myself expected. But there is a positive change in the Canadian economy: RMPI rose much more than expected: 1.7%, contrary to expectations of 0.2%. This big gap indicates that the next GDP will be better. Currently, the USD/CAD is trading lower – meaning that the Canadian dollar is strengthening. So, I was wrong with GDP, but at least for now, the Candaian dollar is getting stronger. Poll: What’s your preferred leverage? Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Opinions share Read Next Tankan Manufacturing Index could take USD/JPY Over 100 Yohay Elam 14 years GDP is expected soon in Canada, and it's expected to show a contraction of 0.6%. There are three reasons why it could surprise to the upside. Here's why. Canada publishes its GDP on monthly basis. This is unique. While the consensus is for a contraction of 0.6%, some conditions have improved lately, and could indicate a surprise, even showing growth rather than contraction. US has stabilized: American Economy seems to have stabilized: Canada is very dependent on the US. It exports lots of good to its neighbor down south. Housing data in the US has stabilized and even risen from… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.
