Commenting on Statistics Canada’s latest monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, “industry-level GDP fell by 0.1% in October, below the market consensus for a flat print but in line with TD’s forecast,” TD Securities analysts said.
Key quotes
“The decline was largely due to softer manufacturing figures, which to a significant extent reflected temporary production disruptions in the US. 13 of 20 industries posted increases, but we still view this report as a negative development for the economy following downward revisions to GDP growth in September.”
“We now track Q4 GDP growth at just 0.5%, almost a full percentage below the BoC’s 1.3% forecast from October. We don’t think this is a large enough disappointment to shake the BoC out of their slumber next month, but it should leave them feeling a little bit less confident about the outlook on the margin. We continue to look for a rate cut in April 2020, and we remain biased towards lower rates in the front-end and belly in Canada.”
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