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Capital Economics analysis team thinks that the markets are already pricing in a limited trade deal between the US and China, thereby ruling out further tariffs but not rolling back existing ones, since about half of the initial hit from trade war worries appears to have unwound.

Key Quotes

“It would probably take a comprehensive deal, including the removal of last year’s tariffs, to provide much more of a boost to equities. And even then, we would still expect most stock markets to fall by end-2019, as the global economy falters regardless.”