Browsing: EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD suffered its worst week since March, falling 1.8%. There are five events in the upcoming week, including manufacturing and services PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
In Germany, Ifo Business Climate dipped to 92.7 in October, down from 93.4. This reflected anxiety over the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases and the ensuing lockdown. Germany’s GDP for Q3 jumped 8.2%, after a decline of 10.1% in Q2. Preliminary CPI managed a weak gain of 0.1%, which ended a streak of three straight declines. The ECB maintained monetary policy at its policy meeting but hinted strongly that it would implement further easing at the December meeting.  Eurozone headline inflation declined by 0.3%, while Core CPI posted a gain of 0.2%.
In the US, durable goods orders were up sharply in September. The headline reading soared to 1.9%, up from 0.4%. This crushed the estimate of 0.5%. The core reading improved to 0.8%, up from 0.4%. Advance GDP jumped 33.1% in Q3 its strongest quarter on record. However, it barely recouped the Q2 loss of 31.4%. There was more good news on the employment front, as jobless claims fell to 751 thousand, down from 787 thousand beforehand. Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, edged down to 0.2%, down from 0.3%.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday, 8:15 in Spain, 8:45 in Italy, 8:50 in final figure in France, 8:55, final in Germany and final eurozone number at 9:00. German and eurozone PMIs are expected to be well into expansionary territory in October, with estimates of 58.0 and 54.4, respectively. The Spanish release is projected to edge up to 51.0, up from 50.8 points. This is just above the neutral 50-level, which separates expansion from contraction. The French PMI is expected at 51.0 and Italy at 53.9 points.
  2. Services PMIs: Wednesday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. The services sector is expected to continue to indicate a contraction in October, with readings below the neutral 50-level. German and eurozone second estimates are projected to confirm the initial readings, at 48.9 and 46.2. respectively. The French second estimate is projected to confirm the initial reading of 46.5. Italy and Spain are expected to dip slightly, with estimates of 47.4 and 40.0, respectively.
  3. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 7:00. Factory orders improved to 4.5% in August, up from 2.1% beforehand. The September consensus stands at 2.8%.
  4. Retail Sales: Thursday, 10:00. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 4.4% in August, up from -1.3% beforehand. However, a decline of 1.4% is expected in the September release.
  5. German Industrial Production: Friday, 7:00. Industrial Production came in at -0.2% in August, its weakest reading since April. Better news is expected in September, with an estimate of 2.9%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1974 is protecting the symbolic 1.20 level.

1.1877 is an immediate resistance line.

1.1744 is providing support.

1.1648 is next.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) has provided support since July.

1.1384 is an important monthly support line.  It is the final support level for now.

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I am neutral on EUR/USD

The euro continues to show volatility and this trend can be expected to continue this week, with all eyes on the US election. The Senate race is extremely tight in some key states, and the specter of a contested election result could add to the volatility.

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EUR/USD Forecast, Technical Analysis, Outlook ► preview of the major events that move Euro/Dollar during the week. Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD characteristics

Euro/dollar is the world’s most popular currency pair for both retail and institutional traders. 19 European countries that vary quite a bit from each other share the single currency. The key countries are Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

A wide trade surplus, originating mostly from German exports, means that funds are flowing into the euro area. When markets are calm, this influx pushes the common currency higher. However, the eurozone has its share of economic and political issues and speculation takes its toll.

The euro debt crisis engulfed Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. While the worst may be behind us, it is always looming. The leadership of the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghi helped stabilize and even save the euro. His “whatever it takes” speech in July 2012″ was a turning point. The diverse countries are linked by a monetary union but not a fiscal one, and this remains the Achilles heel.

EUR//USD trading is often choppy, especially when it is confined to narrow ranges. When the pair is in trend, past technical lines, even those from 2003, are respected quite nicely. €/$ has a “good memory”.

EUR/USD recent moves

The euro-zone economies are growing at a robust pace in 2017. Unemployment is falling and even core inflation is finally rising albeit temporarily All this has led to optimism that sent the euro higher.

The ECB will halve bond-buys to 30 billion euros from January 2018. However, it left the door open to extending the QE program beyond September, and this hurt the euro. A weaker euro makes exports more attractive and pushes imported inflation higher. Draghi is happy with growth but worried about inflation.

The political uncertainty in Germany is becoming an issue after inconclusive elections in September. A fresh round of elections joins the crisis in Catalonia and the political instability in Italy.

In America, hopes for fiscal stimulus faded early in the year, but are now on the rise again, with Trump’s tax plan. The Federal Reserve has maintained its plan for three rates hikes in 2017 despite lower US inflation.

Latest weekly EUR/USD forecast

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