Browsing: GBP USD Forecast

The British Pound expects a busy week, with the rate decision being the peak. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated GBP/USD technical analysis.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

British Pound forecast

Together with the rise of GBP/USD, also the GBP/JPY cross went up and broke an important resistance line. We could see this popular cross continue going north. OK, let’s see the British events. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Halifax HPI: Publication time unknown at the moment. Delayed from last week. This house inflation indicator is important due to its wide array of data – internal data from the HBOS bank. After a disappointing drop of 1.5% last month, a rise of 0.6% is predicted this time.
  2. Construction PMI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Te second housing figure this week comes from purchasing managers in the construction sector. 170 managers in this sector have continued to show pessimism and left the index under 50 – meaning economic contraction. The score is predicted to rise from 48.5 to 48.8 points this time.
  3. Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT. This important survey by the Nationwide Building Society was quite good last time – it rose to 80 points – the highest in two years. It shows optimism from Brits. It’s now predicted to edge up to 81 points.
  4. Services PMI: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The services sector is doing quite well – purchasing managers have been expecting economic expansion in the past 10 months. After the leap to 58.4 points last month, this indicator is predicted to tick down to 58.2 points.
  5. Manufacturing Production: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. This important indicator dropped by 0.9% last month, the first drop in in 5 months hurting the Pound. A correction is predicted this time – a rise of 0.7%. Note that manufacturing is 80% is of industrial production which is published at the same time, and is expected to rise by 0.5%.
  6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Mervyn King wants a weaker pound, and talked about an option to re-open the Quantitative Easing program, after the money ran out of it. But, he hasn’t done it yet. This Asset Purchase Facility is expected to remain unchanged, and so is the interest rate, that stands at 0.5%. In the MPC rate statement, the bank might relate to the situation of economy, that is in an election year.
  7. NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This unofficial estimate proves correct in many cases. This release will complete the first quarter of 2010 and is expected to show a small rise in GDP. NIESR showed a rise of 0.3% last time – it reflected the three months that ended at February.
  8. PPI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. British producer prices leaped for one month and then calmed down last time – PPI Input rose by 0.1%. This time, a rise of 1.2% is predicted in this indicator. PPI Output is expected to rise by 0.4%, similar to last month. As with CPI, British inflation didn’t pick up.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound began the week by rising towards 1.50 and resting there. It later rose to the resistance line of 1.5110 and stayed there for some time before rising. The peak was at 1.53, a safe distance from the all-important 1.5350 resistance line.

The lines hardly changed since last week’s outlook. The Pound now trades between 1.5110, a minor support line, and 1.5350, which provides strong resistance.

Above, 1.5530 is another minor resistance line that worked recently, followed by 1.5833 which is a very strong line resistance.

Looking down, 1.50, the round number, provides some support. The strongest support line appears at 1.4780, the year-to-date low, and also a support line last year.

If 1.4780 is broken, the next line of support appears only at 1.44. This probably won’t be approached this week.

I remain bearish on GBP/USD.

The uncertainty towards the elections and the failure to enjoy the dollar’s weakness to rise above 1.5350 are a bearish sign for me.

Further reading:

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GBP/USD Forecast and technical analysis ► preview of the main events that move the British Pound (Sterling), and especially pound/dollar (cable) during the week. Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest GBP/USD outlook

Pound/dollar characteristics

GBP/USD is a major pair and certainly one of the first to emerge in modern trade. Its nickname “cable” originates from transmitting the exchange rate over the telegraph cable between the UK and the USA in the 19th century.

Above average volatility characterizes pound/greenback trading. In comparison to other major pairs, stop-loss orders are usually placed at wider margins.

Another tidbit of Sterling trading is that the pair “front-runs” economic publications from Great Britain. We usually see a significant market movement ahead of a release. Leaks, rumors, or sheer nervousness move GBP USD

The pound is a moderate “risk” currency. When the global mood is positive, GBP often gains against the dollar, albeit usually not at the same magnitude as commodity currencies. When markets become risk-averse, Sterling is on the retreat.

Brexit talks and GBP/USD

The biggest market mover of GBP/USD is the surprising decision of voters in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. This unprecedented move shook up  Her Majesty’s currency. Brexit has sent Pound/USD to levels last seen in 1985 and despite the recovery, Sterling still suffers.

The economy did well in 2016, before and after the EU Referendum, but it slowed down in 2017. On the other hand, the weak pound pushed inflation above the rises in wages. The Bank of England decided to raise rates in November 2017 but clarified it is a one-off. Mark Carney and his colleagues foresee only two hikes in the next three years.

Brexit negotiations were deadlocked for quite some time, but fresh hopes help the pound stabilize. PM Theresa May may agree to pay the high “divorce bill” that the EU demands.

Latest weekly GBP/USD forecast:

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