Browsing: US Dollar Forecast

The US dollar continues to struggle against the major currencies. Will the greenback turn things around this week? Highlights include PMIs as well as GDP reports in Canada and Australia. The week ends with US nonfarm payrolls, which is a market-mover.

German GDP bounced back in the third quarter, with a gain of 8.5%. This follows a decline of 9.7% in Q2.  In France, GDP jumped 18.7% in Q3, beating the forecast of 18.2%.

It was a tale of two sectors for British PMIs. The Manufacturing PMI improved from 53.3 to 55.2, pointing to strong expansion. However, the Services PMI fell into contraction territory, from 52.3 to 45.8 points. There was grim news from the BoE, as the BoE Monetary Policy Report projected a contraction of 2% in the fourth quarter. This was followed by Finance Minister Sunak’s spending review, in which he said that the Office of Budget Responsibility had projected a GDP decline of 11.3%.

In the US, PMIs for October indicated stronger growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. Services PMI improved to 57.7, as the index accelerated for a seventh straight month. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.7, up significantly from 53.3 beforehand. Both PMIs were well into expansionary territory, which indicates that the economic recovery continues to gain traction. Unemployment claims climbed for a second straight week, with a reading of 778 thousand. This was much higher than the estimate of 732 thousand. Durable goods orders reports were mixed. The headline figure slowed to 1.3%, down from 1.9%. However, the core release climbed from 0.8% to 1.3%.

The week wrapped up with the FOMC minutes of the November policy meeting. The minutes showed that officials did not believe any changes were needed to the current bond-purchase scheme of $120 billion/month. At the same time, they were of the opinion that “circumstances could shift to warrant such adjustments.”

  1. Eurozone Inflation Report: Tuesday, 10:00. Inflation remains low, as the eurozone economy remains in a weak state. Headline inflation is expected in at -0.2%, while the core inflation forecast stands at 0.2%.
  2. UK Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 9:30. Manufacturing slowed to 53.7 in October, but is expected to accelerate to 55.2 in November, which would indicate strong expansion. This would confirm the initial PMI reading.
  3. US Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 15:00. Manufacturing remains well into expansion territory, and another strong reading is expected, with a forecast of 57.7 points.
  4. UK Services PMI: Thursday, 9:30. Business activity has been weakening, as the PMI slowed to 51.4 in October, down from 56.1 beforehand. The downturn is expected to continue, with a forecast of 45.8, which would indicate contraction. This figure would confirm the initial PMI reading.
  5. UK Construction PMI: Friday, 9:30. The construction sector remains continues to show expansion, but slowed to 53.1 in October, down from 56.8 points. The PMI is expected to fall to 52.3 in November, which is downwardly revised from the initial reading of 53.1 points.
  6. RBA Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA is expected to maintain interest rates at the record level of 0.10%. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the rate statement, which could provide clues as to future monetary moves.
  7. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. Australia’s economy fell by 7.0% in Q2, as Covid-19 was responsible for a sharp economic downturn. The economy is expected to rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 2.4%.
  8. Canada GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada releases GDP on a monthly basis. The economy slowed to 1.5% in September, down from 3.0% beforehand. Will we see a rebound in October?
  9. Canada Employment Report: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada created 83.6 thousand jobs in October, much weaker than the September release of 378.2 thousand. Unemployment slipped to 8.9%, its lowest level since March. Will the downswing continue in the November release?
  10. US Employment Report: Friday, 13:30. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling, and the trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 500 thousand.

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US dollar forecast: Preview for the main foreign exchange events that will rock currencies ► focusing on major events and especially on publications in the USA, moving the US dollar (greenback). Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest US dollar outlook

USD and forex general characteristics

The United States Dollar is the reserve currency of the world, partly due to its use in settling oil prices and other commodities. Foreign exchange pairs are divided into majors, minors, and crosses. Both majors and minors include the USD.

US economic indicators and political developments influence currencies more than anywhere else in the world. The decisions and statements by Federal Reserve officials make the biggest waves. The US economy is by far the largest in the world. US politics and policy also have an outsized impact on currencies.

The outlook consists of mostly US economic events but also key market-moving figures from other major economies. The euro-zone, the UK, and Japan stand out.

Recent USD Moves

The greenback suffered a bad start to the year: poor growth and scandals hurt the US dollar. Hopes for fiscal stimulus faded with the repeated failures to repeal Obamacare. Despite two rate hikes in the first half, the dollar struggled. Other economies outperformed America.

The second half already looks a lot different: economic growth reached 3% annualized and the Fed seems to stick to its plan to hike rates three times. In addition, Trump’s tax plan inspires markets, despite hurdles to pass it before Christmas.

Headwinds come from the political scandals. Low inflation also weighs on the dollar. If the “mystery” persists and wages do not accelerate, Janet Yellen and co. could refrain from further tightening. The new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take office in February 2018, and he may not stick to the current plan of raising rates three times.

Latest weekly US Dollar forecast

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