Browsing: US Dollar Forecast

Rate Decisions in New Zealand and the U.K. Employment data in U.S., Canada and Australia, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and many more await us this week. Here is an outlook on the Market movers ahead.

US labor market is continuing to strengthen in light of last week’s ADP estimate. Companies produced 217,000 new jobs last month after a revised 189,000 gain in January. This positive outcome supports Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s testimony to Congress on March 1 saying there are “grounds for optimism” showing the job market is recovering.

  1. New Zealand Rate Decision: Wednesday, 20:00. Following the volatility in oil prices due to the tension in the Middle East and in and last week’s fatal and destructive Christchurch earthquake, it appears that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the cash rate by 0.25% to 2.75% from 3.0% in the previous month. This cut is aimed to lift confidence in light of the halt in market activity.
  2. Australian Employment Data: Thursday, 0:30. Employment change in Australia gained 24,000 jobs following a mere 2,300 January. This rise was more than the 18,400 analysts had expected. Meanwhile unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% equivalent to the previous reading and the forecasted value. Job creation is expected to gain 21,500 and Unemployment rate is likely to remain 5.0%.
  3. British Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:00. Following the ambiguous results of the inflation report handed on Feb 16 and the BOE press conference which followed, it can be suggested that the BOE will not endorse the markets’ views and raise rates in the near future. However King stated that there is a strong possibility of a rise in interest rates in the middle of the year due to inflation uncertainty in the market. The rate is not expected to change this time.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. A remarkable drop in initial unemployment claims was registered last week with 368,000 claims 27,000 less than expected following 388,000 in the week before. This was the lowest number since May of 2008. New unemployment claims are predicted estimated at  373,000.
  5. US Federal Budget Balance: Thursday, 19:00. The U.S. budget deficit widened less than expected in January reaching $49.80 billion below analysts’ predictions of a $70 billion deficit. Deficit was lower than expected due to arise in tax receipts. Concern about the growing U.S. deficit has taken on new urgency after a series of sovereign debt crises in Europe fueled a movement toward painful fiscal austerity initiatives in nations around the globe. President Barack Obama is under pressure to show how he plans to solve the budgetary deficit. U.S. budget deficit  is expected to grow to $235.1 billion.
  6. Canadian Employment Data: Friday, 12:00. Canada employment change in January surged to 69,200 well above the forecast of 18,900 indicating the country’s economic recovery may be accelerating. However the jobless rate rose to 7.8 % from December’s 7.6 %, as more people sought work. Nevertheless there is growing confidence that the Canadian market will grow this year and lower Unemployment rates. A growth of 31,300 new jobs is expected and jobless rate is forecasted to drop to 7.7%.
  7. US Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Sales at retailers rose less than forecasted in January, indicating consumers’ difficulty of maintaining last quarter’s rise in spending without bigger gains in employment. Purchases increased 0.3 % following 0.5% in December. Winter snowstorms may explain the slowdown in spending. Core Retail Sales excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, gained 0.4 % after a 0.3 % gain in December. January figures compelled economists to cut forecasts for consumer spending this quarter. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.6% this time while Core Ratail Sales are expected to grow 0.7%.
  8. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Friday, 14:55. U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment has seen a modest improvement in February rising to 75.1 revise to 77.5. Analysts predicted a rise to74.8. A slight drop to 77.3 is predicted now.

*All times are GMT.

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US dollar forecast: Preview for the main foreign exchange events that will rock currencies ► focusing on major events and especially on publications in the USA, moving the US dollar (greenback). Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest US dollar outlook

USD and forex general characteristics

The United States Dollar is the reserve currency of the world, partly due to its use in settling oil prices and other commodities. Foreign exchange pairs are divided into majors, minors, and crosses. Both majors and minors include the USD.

US economic indicators and political developments influence currencies more than anywhere else in the world. The decisions and statements by Federal Reserve officials make the biggest waves. The US economy is by far the largest in the world. US politics and policy also have an outsized impact on currencies.

The outlook consists of mostly US economic events but also key market-moving figures from other major economies. The euro-zone, the UK, and Japan stand out.

Recent USD Moves

The greenback suffered a bad start to the year: poor growth and scandals hurt the US dollar. Hopes for fiscal stimulus faded with the repeated failures to repeal Obamacare. Despite two rate hikes in the first half, the dollar struggled. Other economies outperformed America.

The second half already looks a lot different: economic growth reached 3% annualized and the Fed seems to stick to its plan to hike rates three times. In addition, Trump’s tax plan inspires markets, despite hurdles to pass it before Christmas.

Headwinds come from the political scandals. Low inflation also weighs on the dollar. If the “mystery” persists and wages do not accelerate, Janet Yellen and co. could refrain from further tightening. The new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take office in February 2018, and he may not stick to the current plan of raising rates three times.

Latest weekly US Dollar forecast

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