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“The CBR surprised the markets by hiking its Key Rate by 25bps to 7.5% at today’s Board meeting,” not TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“The reason for the hike was principally ruble weakness, which has caused the CBR’s forecast for CPI inflation to be moved well above the 4% target for much of next year.”

“The press statement leaves open the possibility of future hikes if need be. That said, Governor Nabiullina said that monetary policy may be loosened by end-2019 or early 2020.”

“We now expect the CBR to hike by another 25bps by the end of this year, with the risk of another hike early next year. We then expect rate cuts to be resumed at the end of 2019.”

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