“Political dynamics seem to be changing on the back of defections from both large parties as the popularity of this Independent Group seems to come at the cost of support for Labour,” Rabobank analysts say on the latest political developments in the UK ahead of the March 29 Brexit deadline.
Key quotes
“Consequently, the opposition party Labour has shifted their Brexit position to supporting a second referendum, thereby increasing the odds of a Bremain. These events might create a perfect storm for the EU-UK deal to get parliamentary approval on 12 March.”
“In case of rejection, MP’s are expected to vote in favour of an extension of article 50 on 14 March and EU approval does not look problematic.”
“We still see an orderly Brexit as the most likely outcome as the extension will give the British Parliament more time to find a consensus on a desired EU-UK deal. The chances of a hard Brexit also remain uncomfortably high on the back of the political gridlock on Brexit in the UK.”
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