China’s April exports defy gravity, increasing 3.5% y/y while imports dropped -14.2%. Market reaction was limited, with CNY/CNH outperforming, per TD Securities.
“Exports recorded a surprise positive reading of 3.5% y/y (TD -5.7%, mkt -11%) while imports were softer at -14.2% y/y (TD -8.9%, mkt -10%).”
“Market reaction was limited, with CNY/CNH outperforming other Asian FX. We expect this to continue, with China likely to prefer to avoid trade-weighted (CFETS CNY) weakness, likely limiting depreciation at times of USD strength and limiting appreciation when the USD weakens.”