“Like the broad consensus, we forecast the June activity data from China will contain mixed messages,” Prakash Sakpal, ING’s Asia economist, notes.
“While the trade war continues to weigh on exports and manufacturing, monetary indicators testify the fiscal stimulus is doing its best to counter the export-led slowdown.”
“Despite being a few points below 50, China’s unchanged manufacturing PMI in June was quite a bad start to the June data releases. Clearly, trade and new lending will be the focal points next week, while industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales releases – all feeding into the GDP release – aren’t due for another two weeks.”
“For now, markets should take comfort that China’s GDP growth remains firmly within the target of 6% – 6.5% for 2019. Anything above the lower end of this target range will be a bonus.”
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