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Analysis team of ANZ is believing that China will announce an aggressive growth target of ‘around 6.5%’ for 2019, at the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.

Key Quotes

“Policymakers believe market stability and structural reforms will drive growth. We expect the government will announce a VAT rate cut, a deficit budget of 2.9% of GDP and emphasise city cluster development.”

“In addition, we will focus on the annual quota of the special local government bond (SLGB) issuance, which is likely to be lifted by 60%.”

“The PBoC will maintain a low interest rate environment primarily through reduction of reserve requirement ratio. To maintain policy prudence, the central bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark lending rate and 7-day reverse repo rate, unless there is a change in the US interest rate cycle.”