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Iris Pang, economist at ING, points out that China’s February’s manufacturing PMI data came in at 49.2, lower than January’s 49.5 as new export orders continued to sink, falling to 45.2 in February from 46.9 last month.

Key Quotes

“One piece of slightly good news comes from new orders, which represent new domestic orders. These rose to 50.6 in February from 49.6 last month.”

“Though the non-manufacturing PMI also continued to fall, dropping to 54.3 in February from 54.7 last month,   new orders in this sector fell to 50.7, (near the 50 threshold), from 51.0.”

“We believe a trade deal, especially over the longer run, will be positive for both the Chinese and US economies. But this will not immediately reflect in economic data.”

“Any such deal is unlikely until the end of March at the earliest. This means we probably will have another month or two of bad PMI data before signs of improvement begin to emerge.”