Analysts at TD Securities suggest that based on their models, and following dire export/import PMIs in recent months, they expect China’s imports and exports to slow sharply, with imports down to 12.3%/y in Nov (consensus 17.8% y/y) from 20.1% y/y in Oct and exports down to 10.3%/y in Nov (consensus 12.6% y/y) from 26.3% y/y in Oct.
“We expect the trade surplus to increase to $54.1bn in Nov from $34.0bn in Oct. There are quirky seasonals at play, so we chose to replicate past years. Soon enough, however, we’ll have Chinese New Year distortions, next year falling over 5-6 Feb 2019. As ever the trade surplus with the US will be closely watched.”