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TD Securities analysts note that the  China’s April exports were weaker than expected (-2.7% y/y, market 3.0%, TD 6.9%) while imports were stronger (4.0% y/y, market -2.1%, TD -3.5%), giving a net result of a much smaller trade surplus than expected ($13.84bn, market $34.56bn, TD $46.0bn).

Key Quotes

“China’s overall trade surplus increased to $90.2bn over the first 4 months of the year compared to $70.9bn over the same period last year. In terms of the country breakdown China’s trade surplus with the US was $21.0bn, with exports to the US dropping by 13.1% and imports falling 25.7% y/y.”

“The trade surplus with the US is showing little sign of eroding, with the 12m sum remaining elevated around $327.5bn.”