China: Will exports continue to downplay the trade war impact? – ING


Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, suggests that in the forthcoming week, we’ll get all the activity data for November of Chinese economy starting with trade data over the weekend and is going to gauge maximum investor’s attention.

Key Quotes

“The tariffs on more than half of China’s exports to the US went into effect in September, and so while overseas orders for Chinese goods have been shrinking since June, there has been no let-up in export shipments which have maintained their double-digit pace of growth throughout October, as the graph below shows.”

“The strength seen in recent months could be front-loading before higher tariffs strike at the beginning of 2019 as the consensus estimates 10% annual export growth, which will put monthly exports at an all-time high of $237 billion.”

“The rest of the China data including inflation, retail sales, fixed asset investment, industrial production, and bank lending should tell us about the effectiveness of domestic policies which have been trying to cushion the economy from the effect of the trade war.”


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