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The latest Reuters poll of 47 economists showed that the Chinese economy is likely to expand at a record pace of 19% in the first quarter of 2021, courtesy of a recovery in  domestic demand and policy support.

Key findings

“While the reading will be heavily skewed by the plunge in activity a year earlier, the expected jump would be the strongest since at least 1992, when official quarterly records started.”

“It would also signal the world’s second-largest economy has continued to gain momentum, after a 6.5% expansion in the last quarter of 2020.”

“The poll also showed economic growth for 2021 is expected to be 8.6%, quickening from the previous year’s 2.3% pace to the strongest performance in a decade, and slightly higher than January’s forecast of 8.4%.”

“Consumer inflation will likely to slow to 1.6% in 2021 from 2.5% in 2020, but it could pick up to 2.3% in 2022.”              

Expert score

5

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