Ahead of China’s official activity data for March, up for publishing at 01:00 GMT, Reuters came out with the poll results of 30 economists suggesting a 51.2 figure versus 50.6 prior. It’s worth mentioning that the market consensus for the Non-Manufacturing PMI release, to be published joining with the NBS Manufacturing PMI, also indicates upbeat prints of 52.6 for March compared to 51.4 flashed during February.
The restart of Chinese factories, which closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, is cited as the main catalyst for the anticipated jump in NBS Manufacturing PMI.
The survey report also quote’s Morgan Stanley analysts as saying, “The key driver (in March PMI) is likely to be continued resilience in external demand, as shown by Korea’s daily exports in the first 20 days of March, which accelerated to 6.5% on a 2Y CAGR basis vs. 5.2% for full month of February.”
FX implications
Although a run-up in the key Chinese matrix should help ease the market’s recent risk-off mood and also help AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s biggest customer, fears of disappointment are high and may prove to be detrimental as the quote stays heavy.
It’s worth mentioning that the Reuters poll also cites China’s growth target and comments from Premier Li Keqiang to keep sellers hopeful. “Beijing has set an annual economic growth target at above 6% this year, below analyst expectations, to allow room for uncertainties and a response to changes. Premier Li Keqiang has warned against any sharp turn in policymaking.”
Read: AUD/USD: Bears keep reins around 0.7600, focus on China PMI
Share
