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Citibank analysts suggest that their point forecasts show that the USD is around 1% weaker vs. G10 over 0-3m and around 4% weaker over 6-12m.

Key Quotes

“The USD can fall when there is positive growth convergence (RoW growth outperforms the US, a la 2017) and negative growth convergence (US and ROW growth falls but RoW growth falls less). For example, in 2015, US growth retreated from 3.8% yoy to 1.3% yoy but Eurozone growth slowed down from 2.0% yoy to 1.8% yoy only. Dollar index fell from 100 to 93 in this period.”

“We expect the differential between US and EA growth to peak in 2Q this year. Growth outperformance may narrow from 2% to 1.8% in Q2 and further reduce to 0.7% in Q4, which may undermine the USD.”