Citibank analysts suggest that their point forecasts show that the USD is around 1% weaker vs. G10 over 0-3m and around 4% weaker over 6-12m.
Key Quotes
“The USD can fall when there is positive growth convergence (RoW growth outperforms the US, a la 2017) and negative growth convergence (US and ROW growth falls but RoW growth falls less). For example, in 2015, US growth retreated from 3.8% yoy to 1.3% yoy but Eurozone growth slowed down from 2.0% yoy to 1.8% yoy only. Dollar index fell from 100 to 93 in this period.”
“We expect the differential between US and EA growth to peak in 2Q this year. Growth outperformance may narrow from 2% to 1.8% in Q2 and further reduce to 0.7% in Q4, which may undermine the USD.”
Share
