Ryan McKay, Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that there is plenty of economic/market data to keep an eye on this week for commodities market.
Key Quotes
“On the economic side, the October nonfarms job report, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, and European GDP and inflation will get the most attention. On top of this, earnings reports will be front and center amid an equity market on edge, while any headlines on trade with China will also be of interest.”
“This economic data will likely feed into Fed and ECB expectations and ultimately the USD and CNH, which are major factors in precious metals markets. But, given that precious metals have been ignoring the currency dynamics for now, the equity markets are likely to be behind any major moves this week.”
“On the base metal side, the Chinese manufacturing data and trade headlines are the most important.”
“On the energy side, the weekly US inventory data will be of importance as outsized builds have had prices on the ropes. Signs that refinery maintenance is coming to an end should serve to calm the markets, but similar to precious metals, equity markets and risk sentiment seem to be in the driver seat. In addition to the inventory data, headlines surrounding Iranian sanctions and OPEC’s potential 2019 production cuts also have potential to move crude oil markets. TD Securities expects the Iranian sanctions and return of refinery demand to lift crude prices off the recent lows moving forward.”
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