The US equities on Wednesday suffered their worst loss since August on trade tensions and heightened fears of US economic recession. Analysts at Nomura expect sentiment to remain weak through until October 9 and the market to become more sensitive to bad news than to good news.
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If the historical pattern in sentiment in circumstances like the present is any guide, we would expect the cooldown in global stock market sentiment to last through perhaps 9 October.
Given this tendency, we think that the unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing PMI was probably more of a catalyst than a genuine cause of it.
Stay on guard against a risk-off phase that we think may continue for as long as the cooldown in sentiment lasts.
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