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Demand for copper rod and wire should start to peak in H2 2021. Meanwhile, supply disruptions in South America will likely persist on under-investments in mines this year and questions over the speed of vaccine distribution in the continent. Strategists at OCBC Bank see copper testing a high of $8,800/mt at the end of the next year. 

Key quotes

“Copper demand may have yet to peak vis-à-vis steel, while supply also remains a big concern, given the concentration of production in South American economies.” 

“It remains a question mark if the under-investment in copper mine CAPEX could impede mining output beyond 2021.” 

“We think copper may peak at $8,800/mt by end 2021.”