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COVID-19 is having a major impact on both the Chinese and the global economy, therefore, economists at Rabobank have downgraded their growth forecast for the next years. 

Key quotes

“We expect global economic growth to be 1.6% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021. We have sharply adjusted our growth forecast for 2020 to the downside as a result of the outbreak of the recent coronavirus, officially named COVID-19.”

“We have also calculated a risk scenario in which the virus spreads further. Under this scenario, economic growth in China and the global economy will fall to 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively.”

“We expect economic growth in China in 2020 to amount to 2.4%, much lower than the 5.7% we were forecasting at the end of 2019.”

“Due to the countrywide lockdown in Italy, we have revised our growth outlook for the Eurozone to -0.1% this year and 1.2% in 2021 and to -1.6% for Italy in 2020.”

 

Expert score

5

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