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Economists at Rabobank have changed their base case to the pandemic scenario and now expect a recession in virtually all G10 countries.

Key quotes

“We estimate that global economic growth will slow to 0.7% in 2020, down from 2.9% before the corona crisis.” 

“We expect a rebound of 3.2% in 2021, but this hinges on the assumption that the economic fallout due to the coronavirus is limited to this year, which is far from clear.”

“The largest decline in GDP is expected in Japan (-2.5%), Italy (-1.9%) and Germany (1.2%).”