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Analysts at Westpac are concerned that the coronavirus is likely to have a bigger economic impact on New Zealand than SARS.

Key notes

  • Our baseline scenario is that March quarter GDP will be 0.6% lower than previously thought.
  • This assumes a two month ban on travel and one month of disruption in China’s factories.
  • In this scenario there would be little lasting economic damage. Late-2020 would feature high quarterly GDP growth as the economy rebounds.
  • China is now much more important to the New Zealand economy than in 2003.
  • Quarantine efforts this time are much more draconian than they were during SARS.