COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacle

• All eyes on China’s resurgence from under lockdown. 
• The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 continues to grow in the US
• Markets to remain risk-off unless the tied can turn sooner.

First of all, for a recap of where we are as of Friday’s close, see here: Forex Today: Dollar the strongest as risk aversion rules.

COVID-19 weekend news is full of headlines and updates to the debacle, COVID-19, which has mounted up 1,253,919 global cases, 68,169 deaths and 257,221 recoveries.

All eyes have been on China as the numbers of new cases added to the global tally drop off to so few coronavirus cases, that some days, authorities don’t see any local transmission. Consequently, the Chinese workforce has been slowing getting back to business in a highly encouraging prospect for the global economy and humanity leading to estimates that the bell curve for other nations will be a similar time frame of a few months, (China has gone from reporting thousands of cases a day in February to reporting one or two a day now).

China on Sunday claimed 25 of the 30 news coronavirus cases it confirmed were imported, which are regarded as less of a risk considering there is less chance of contagion due to the benefit of quarantines on entry to the country. China’s total number of confirmed coronavirus cases stands at 81,669, with the death toll at 3,329. Some 76,964 people have recovered, while 295 are still in critical condition. However, there’s some question among international academics about China’s case reporting, so it’s hard to really know what China’s cases are in reality, and for that matter, considering how the nations around the world have different ways to record, report and test, the data could almost be considered useless).

All eyes are on this Chinese experiment

Either way, as China goes back to work, all eyes are on this experiment and it will be used as a template for the rest of the world and closely monitored by forward-looking investors. China, for now, is dipping the toe, to make sure that another major outbreak doesn’t occur, which would otherwise be a doomsday event for markets. The market is looking to see by how much China can ease-off the highly restrictive social distancing while keeping it’s testing systems up and running and getting the economy going again. So far, so good. 

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), last week, released a set of heartening data for March that indicates Beijing’s efforts to kick start the buckled economy is showing some positive results with a rebound in the manufacturing sector and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A total of 96.6% of China’s large and medium-sized enterprises have resumed production, up 17.7 percentage points from February, according to NBS’ survey. However, it is early days and just one-months data, the first since the two months of shut down. Let’s hope that he good news keeps flowing which could bring some stability to financial markets while Italy starts to report less eath rates and shows sign of recovery as well at the same time that the Federal Reserve begins to decrease its asset purchases. 

However, as the US morphs into the new epicentre, the week ahead could be a terrible one in term of numbers as the bell curve continues in its northerly trajectory as the cases mount up. Moreover, lats Friday’s jobs data in all forms were shocking. Financial markets are sure to be on the cautious side in the open.

COVID-19 weekend headlines

Here are some significant developments in the debacle from the weekend:

• In a statement, the commission said three deaths were reported on Saturday from Hubei province, the capital of which is Wuhan, initially at the center of the global coronavirus outbreak. “Hubei reported no new cases of confirmed infections, no new cases of suspected infections, and 3 deaths.” China’s total number of confirmed coronavirus cases stands at 81,669, with the death toll at 3,329. Some 76,964 people have recovered, while 295 are in critical condition.
• US coronavirus death toll rises as 621 new deaths reported; 4,934 people have now died.
• Italy has reported an average of 4,466 new COVID-19 cases over the last week, the lowest 7-day average since March 14-20.number of patients in intensive care in Italy falls for the first time; there are now 3,994 ICU patients, 74 fewer than yesterday.
• Italy has reported an average of 4,594 new COVID-19 cases over the last week, the lowest 7-day average since March 14-20.
• Spain extends its state of emergency until April 26, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announces
• 12,418 people have died in Spain after testing positive for COVID-19 which is an increase of 674 deaths since yesterday and 130,759 cases of the virus have been recorded in the country which is an increase of 6,023 since yesterday.
• Germany records 6,082 new coronavirus cases in one day, bringing national total to 85,778; death toll has risen to 1,158. 
• More than 110 new cases of coronavirus confirmed in Tokyo, local officials say, the highest daily increase since outbreak began
• coronavirus update India total case: 4255
• New York COVID-19 case total passes 122,000; Death toll rises to 4,159 but Governor Andrew Cuomo notes daily death toll has been declining slightly, (New York reports coronavirus cases to 122,031 from 113,704).
• Gov. Cuomo says it’s possible new york has already reached the apex of new cases, but it will take a few more days of data to know for sure
• President Donald Trump on Saturday doubled down on his support for Hydrochloroquine that is still being tested to treat the coronavirus, saying he might take the medicine himself and encouraging others with doctor approval to do the same.
• Trump has said that he has requested prime minister Narendra Modi to release the amount of hydroxychloroquine ordered by the united states, a medicine in short supply that could help with facing the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Dr Anthony Fauci urges Americans to “buckle down” as US will see escalation of COVID-19 cases and deaths.asked if hydroxychloroquine, strongly advocated by pres trump, can prevent or treat COVID-19, Dr Fauci says that “in terms of science,” he cannot offer a definitive assessment, says it may have an effect and may not.
• Fauci: We are struggling to get it under control,” says Fauci of the spread of coronavirus. even if the number of covid-19 cases plateau, death toll will continue to rise as a lagging indicators. The apex maybe 8 or 9 days away.
• Fauci: “This is going to be a bad week, unfortunately,” says Fauci of what America faces from the coronavirus pandemic. “it is going to be shocking to some.
• Ecuador stores coronavirus victims in giant fridges as morgues fill up.

Weekend indices and FX update 

• DAX: 9631, +0.99% .
• DOW: 21237, +0.78%.
• FTSE: 5445, +1.03% .
• HANG SENG: 23120, +0.24%.
• EUR/USD: 1.08, – 0.037%.
• USD/JPY: 108.46, +0.015.
• GBP/USD: 1.2260, -0.025%.
• UD/CHF: 0.977, – 0.092%.
• USD/CAD: 1.4190, 0.063%.

• GBP/USD:  Death cross pattern, rising cases, and evidence of economic damage all point down

• USD/CAD: Oil brings modest relief to the Canadian dollar

• AUD/USD: Aussie set for another plunge down under as coronavirus carnage spreads

• Gold: Bullish, resilient to dollar’s strength