Disappointing dollar

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Data/Event RisksForex Daily Table April 2 2013

  • USD:  Low risks from the data side, with just factory orders.  That said, the market could well be more sensitive to weaker releases after yesterday’s disappointing ISM manufacturing data.
  • EUR: The final PMI manufacturing data today will be of interest, especially in wake of US data yesterday.  Eurozone unemployment data also released, but of secondary interest.
  • GBP: Manufacturing PMI data is expected to improve modestly from 47.9 to 48.7.  We’ve only seen 4 readings above 50 over the past year.  Sterling would suffer on weaker than expected reading.

Idea of the Day

The weaker manufacturing ISM data in the US yesterday put a dampener on the recent trend of stronger than expected US data supporting the dollar.  It was also divergence in data surprises between the US and Eurozone (former surprising to upside, latter to downside) that had helped push EURUSD to the lows of the year last week.  This explains why there was only limited reaction on EURUSD to the weak US data yesterday, because if continued this driver of EURUSD could disappear this month.  For this reason, the revisions to Eurozone data today will be closely watched. More disappointment will push EURUSD lower, but the lows of last week 1.2751 should be safe for now.

Latest FX News

  • EUR: Against the dollar, currently sitting just below the 200 day moving average which sits at 1.2889.  The euro gained only modestly vs. the dollar in the wake of the weaker US data, reflecting an underlying reluctance to move higher.
  • USD:  The ISM manufacturing data yesterday knocked the dollar, with the headline coming in at 51.3 vs. expectations for 54.0.
  • JPY:  The past two sessions have seen the yen strengthen, with USDJPY falling decisively below the bull channel in place for the past four months.  Weak US data helped the yen gain yesterday to a 4 week low at 92.57.
  • AUD: No surprise to see the central bank keeping rates on hold at 3.00%.  There was a brief and modest rally on the Aussie in the wake of the announcement, but AUDUSD quickly settled to sit near to 1.0460 into the European open.

Further reading: Cyprus: Potential capital outflows and euro-zone outflow explained

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