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  • The dollar index is sidelined below the 100-day moving average (MA) at press time, despite the uptick in the treasury yields.  
  • The greenback could take cues from the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields.  

The dollar index (DXY) is flat-lined below the 100-day MA, currently at 96.54, having failed to keep gains above that crucial average line in the last two trading days.  

The 10-year treasury yield is currently trading at 2.42 percent, up four basis points from the low of 2.38 percent hit yesterday. So far, however, the recovery in the benchmark bond yield has failed to put a bid under the greenback.  

It is worth noting that the DXY had picked up a strong bid at six-week lows near 95.70 hit last Wednesday, as the rate pause signaled by the central bank on that was priced in by markets over the last three months.  

The bounce, however, ran out of steam at 96.81 on Friday with the section of the yield curve inverting for the time since 2009, triggering recession fears. Further, the index fell back below the 100-day MA yesterday, stalling the bounce from the lows 95.70 hit last week.  

Looking forward, the focus remains on the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields, which is still holding in the positive territory.  

Technical Levels