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  • Dollar index’s daily chart shows a golden crossover. 
  • The bullish cross is a lagging indicator and often marks temporary tops. 

The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against majors, could be nearing an interim top, as a big-time lagging indicator has turned bullish for the first time since June 2018. 

The 50-day and 200-day averages have produced a golden cross, an indicator of the long-term bull market. The averages, however, are based on past data. Hence, crossovers tend to lag price, especially the longer duration ones. 

Put simply, a golden cross is the result of a strong rally and has limited predictive powers at best. More often than not, an asset is overbought by the time the crossover happens and witnesses correction post-crossover confirmation. 

The 14-day relative strength index of the dollar index is reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 print. A a result, the DXY may struggle to hold onto gains above 100, if any. On the downside, the 200-hour average, currently at 99.19, could work as strong support. 

At press time, the DXY is seen at 99.84. 

Daily chart

Trend: Neutral

Technical levels

 

Expert score

5

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