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  • Dollar index is stuck in a 29 pip range.  
  • An above-forecast US data could yield range breakout.  

Dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against major currencies, has been restricted to a narrow range of 96.88-96.59 since July 1.  

An upside break of the trading range would imply resumption fo the rally from the June 25 low of 95.84 and open the doors for test of the 50-day moving average, currently at 97.26.  

On the other hand, range breakdown would establish another bearish lower high and shift risk in favor of a drop to the recent low of 95.94.  

Range breakout looks likely in case the US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings data, due at 12:30 GMT, blows past expectations, weakening the case for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.  

Hourly chart

Trend: Neutral

Pivot points