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The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s value against majors, jumped 1.79% in September, snapping a five-month losing streak. 

However, the bounce looks like a relief rally and could end up carving out a bearish lower high, CLSA’s Laurence Balanco noted in a report on Wednesday, according to BloombergQuint. 

Key quotes (Source: BloombergQuint)

The price action in the week ended Sept. 25, has seen the DXY accelerate higher, breaking above the 50-day moving average, and confirming the tactical low setup that targets a move to the 95.50-97.73 area. 

This target or resistance zone is a confluence of the 200-day moving average and the underside of a long-term trendline (from the lows of June 2011)

From a long-term perspective, such a bounce should form a lower high in the 95.50-97.73 range in an ongoing downtrend that ultimately results in a break of the February 2018 lows’ support.