Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, points out that two weeks ago, the market bought EUR/USD as Fed officials hinted rate cuts could be coming and the ECB revealed a reluctance to follow the Fed down the road of monetary easing.
“Today, Draghi will get a second chance to talk down the EUR when he speaks at Sintra. He will have to come up big, i.e. signal rate cuts and/or that QE is coming, to convince the market to sell EUR/USD before the Fed likely makes a dovish shift tomorrow. It is crunch time for the ECB and the Fed and we stick to our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 in 3M as the Fed is set to ‘out-ease’ the ECB.”