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Danske Bank analysts suggest that Super Thursday has arrived with many important releases and events and in Sweden, all eyes are on the Riksbank.

Key Quotes

“We expect the Riksbank to signal a delay of the intended next rate hike and at least a verbal intervention stating the hike will come in February rather than December. Most likely it will be accompanied by a shift in the repo rate path too. We see no reason to change our call for a February rate cut as we expect data to deteriorate into next year.”

“The Norges Bank meeting is expected to be less of a market moving event, as we do not anticipate any new signals from the bank at today’s rate-setting meeting. The bank signalled clearly in September that interest rates would probably stay around the current level for a long period. Norges Bank will therefore repeat the message from its September meeting.”

“In the euro area, we also have a busy day ahead of us. First we get PMI figures from the euro area and Germany. We expect the current manufacturing recession to drag into Q4 19, as trade war effects continue to work their way through the supply chain and since order-inventory dynamics are weighing on production. Domestic demand is still holding up albeit with signs of weakness, so we expect the service print to stay broadly unchanged.”

“Later today, the ECB will present the outcome of its monetary policy discussions. We do not expect any policy changes or new messages from the ECB at Draghi’s final meeting before leaving office on 31 October. The cacophony from governing council members will receive attention in the Q&A amid declining inflation expectations.”

“In the US, we get preliminary Markit PMIs for October. We expect manufacturing PMI to remain broadly unchanged. We and others have been caught by surprise by the sharp fall also in Markit PMI services. Unfortunately we do not have good indicators forecasting the service index but expect it to remain above 50. We also get core capex data for September. So far core capex has been holding up despite weak soft indicators, but we expect the coming releases to come in slightly weaker.”