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According to analysts at Rabobank, ECB’s economic outlook will take centre stage in its upcoming meeting and the staff projections will probably be cut, something that’s becoming a recurring theme.

Key Quotes

“We believe that this meeting is too early for changes in the forward guidance.”

“But due to the ECB’s desire to safeguard access to credit, we expect the ECB to follow up on the current TLTRO-II with a fresh series of long-term refinancing operations in the near future.”

“Policy rates

  • Forward guidance to remain unchanged at  “through the summer of 2019″.
  • Despite guidance remaining unchanged, we don’t expect any rate hikes in 2019 and 2020.”

“Asset Purchase Program

  • No changes to the reinvestment program or its forward guidance.”


  • We expect Draghi to mention a successor for TLTRO-II, with allotment starting in June.
  • This successor will probably focus on  maintaining  current levels of liquidity.
  • That said, the ECB may save the official announcement, including the full modalities, for April.”