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Danske Bank analysts suggest that after a decline in inflation expectations since the start of the year, which intensified in the second quarter, they believe the ECB will now be forced to act.

Key Quotes

“While key ECB Governing Council members (GC) have recently voiced concerns about additional stimulus via bond purchases, we still expect a bold ECB package as the ECB’s credibility is on the line. If the ECB fails to deliver a substantial package, we believe inflation expectations will not creep higher from the alarmingly low levels (compared with its inflation mandate).”

“Furthermore, if the ECB fails to deliver, the financial market community would have been thrown off the trail by the numerous dovish comments, including the major shift from Mario Draghi in Sintra, which would be a dent to its credibility and transparency.”

“We keep our call for next week’s ECB meeting as we outlined after Draghi’s Sintra speech to include a rate cut and restart of QE (18 June 2019). We argue for a restart of QE for EUR45-60bn for 12 months, a rate cut of 20bp, a tiering system and extended forward guidance.”