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According to Rabobank analysts, Mario Draghi’s final meeting as President of the ECB today should be a relatively uneventful policy-wise.

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“A comprehensive policy package was announced only last month and this has yet to be implemented fully (recall that both net asset purchases and the tiered remuneration of excess reserves will only start at the end of this month).”

“Nonetheless, President Draghi’s farewell may not be the party he was hoping for. The ECB’s latest policy decision caused quite some division in the Council. Moreover, the ECB President is waving goodbye against an economic backdrop that is not as bright as he would have liked to see it as he leaves office.”

“If the incoming data remain weak, incoming President Lagarde may have to step in Draghi’s footsteps and lower the ECB’s deposit rate again at her first policy meeting in December. But we do note that division in the Council has increased the likelihood that the next cut will be delayed into 2020.”