ECB: No fireworks, statement Unchanged – TDS

Today’s 12:45pm BST ECB statement was unchanged from June, as had been fully expected, as the ECB retained the key language on the path of QE, the plan for reinvestments, and the forward guidance for rates, notes Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

“However, there was one interesting tidbit to note in the non-English statements, which we took a quick skim of given the recent translation issues.”

“The French statement, for instance, says the following at the very bottom: “Veuillez consulter la version anglaise pour les termes exacts approuvés par le Conseil des gouverneurs” and all other 21 languages have a similar comment. This translates to: please consult the English version for the exact terminology that has been approved by the Board of Governors.”

“That text has not normally been in the non-English statements the past, so this is a clear message that the English-language text (“rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019…”), which to us suggests no scope for rate hikes until after the summer, is the correct one.”

“Draghi’s response to the translation question was the primary thing that we were looking for in the press conference at 1:30pm BST, and this appears to answer our question. While we don’t look for a substantial market reaction from today’s ECB meeting, a clearer message that rate hikes should not be on the table at all until at least September 2019 should leave a (very) slightly dovish tone for rates.”