With ECB policy largely set for the next year or so and the macro picture little changed, analysts at TD Securities are not looking for any big revelations from President Draghi.
Key Quotes
“However, he will need to clarify the ECB’s forward guidance on rates, especially given the recent questions around the translation of the June statement.”
“FX: We expect a fairly muted FX market reaction this month and think the threshold to break out of recent ranges is rather high. Draghi may indeed provide some clarity over what precisely the summer of 2019 means, but we struggle to think the FX market will get overly excited one way or the other.”
“Rates: We prefer heading to the July ECB meeting with a neutral stance on the front-end curve. Meanwhile, we still think the rally in the Bund curve a bit overdone. Therefore, we maintain our recommendation for short 10y Bund real yields and 5s30s curve steepeners.”
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