ECB to cement the message from the June meeting – ING

“With little substantial change to the economy, the ECB could definitely take it easy at Thursday’s meeting,” argue ING analysts.

Key quotes

“The main focus, in our view, will be on cementing the message from June, giving market participants no reason to doubt the bank’s determination.”

“It was then the ECB announced it expects interest rates to remain unchanged “at least through the summer of 2019″. To some, this statement suggests that a first rate hike could come as early as July 2019. To others, it suggests a hike would not come before 21 September. In our view, however, EU aficionados know the official European summer break always ends in the last week of August, opening the window for a first hike in September 2019.”

“If the recovery is derailed on the back of increased trade tensions or there is no increase in underlying inflation, the bank’s efforts to end QE will be compromised. Nevertheless, it’s obvious that the broad majority of ECB members seems determined to end QE, though as quietly as possible, and would like to return to interest rates as the main policy tool.”