Economists cut China GDP estimates as trade war trumps stimulus – Bloomberg survey


According to 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, China’s economic growth is seen slowing down in the coming quarters as recent government measures to counter an escalating US-China trade war were seen as inadequate.

Key Findings:

“Chinese GDP will probably increase by 6.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in the final quarter of 2018 before growth decelerates to 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

Those forecasts, collected Oct. 22-29, were marked down from the estimates of 6.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, collected in September’s survey.

Forecasters in this month’s survey also increased their estimates for average CPI in 2018, 2019 and reduced estimates for China’s current account surplus as a percentage of GDP.”

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