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According to a Reuters poll of economists, expectations of a recession are on the rise, while economists are still expecting a further two hikes from the US Fed this year.

Key highlights

Fed to raise rates two more times this year, unchanged from the May poll, twice in 2019 vs the Fed’s dot-plot expectation of three hikes in 2019.

Median 35% chance of recession in two years (previous 31% in May).

Median 15% chance of recession in twelve months (unchanged from May).

US GDP to average 2.9%, 2.5% growth this year and next respectively.

US GDP growth expected to come in at 3.7% for 2018’s Q2, 2.9% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4.

The Reuters poll was conducted of 110 economists taken from June 19th to the 25th.