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Bilal Khan, senior economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) lowered its policy rate (the overnight deposit rate) by 150bps to 14.25% on 22 August, in line with Standard Chartered’s expectations.

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“The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for a 100bps cut. We think the (dis)inflation outlook supports further easing; global market sentiment is the key source of uncertainty on Egypt’s monetary policy path.”

“The CBE said future decisions will be guided by “inflation expectations” rather than past CPI prints. We forecast that inflation will remain well anchored in the coming months, well within the CBE’s target of 9% +/- 3ppt for end-2020. We maintain our call for another 400bps of cuts for the rest of FY20 (year ending June 2020).”

“The main risk to our call is global financial-market sentiment towards EM and the impact of further CBE easing on offshore holdings of Egyptian debt.”