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Bilal Khan, Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, expects Egypt growth to accelerate but suggests that the policy backdrop to remain challenging.

Key Quotes

“We forecast GDP growth of 5.5% in FY19 (year ending June 2019), picking up from an estimated 5.3% in FY18 (the government’s estimate based on actual data through H1-FY18).”

“Inflation targets are within reach; central bank to remain on hold in 2018. We expect CPI inflation to average 14.8% in FY19, putting the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) inflation target of 13% (+/- 3ppt) within reach. Nevertheless, we expect interest rates to stay on hold in 2018 amid weak financial-market sentiment towards emerging economies; foreign holdings of Egyptian treasury securities declined by c.30% between March and July 2018.”