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Markets are trading slower and slower as holidays are approaching. We see a lot of USD pairs trading in a corrective formation from where we will expect another leg in favor of the buck.


Commodity currencies are still one of the weakest with the Aussie trading near weekly lows after a three-wave rally to 0.7280 which we labeled as wave 4), so the current decline can be wave 5) underway to 0.7160-0.7180 area.



At the same time, we see a triangle on other pairs, such as USDCHF and USDJPY. On USDCHF we see the pair trading in wave D which may rise to 1.0300 in the near-term, but only as sub-wave D, so a real breakout above 1-0350 should occur after wave E. Based on time projection, this push up may occur next week.



In the meantime, USDJPY may also see higher prices, up to 120.00, but we need 118.25 broken to make sure that wave four is finished. At the same time, this pair will need help from lower 10 year notes prices and higher stocks. For now, invalidation level remains at 116.53.