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AUDUSD has turned down from 0.7834 high in May after wave C-circled completed a big corrective wave IV flat pattern. A flat has a 3-3-5 sub-wave structure, so it was a contra-trend movement that should send the price back to the lows. So far, the market made a very good and strong bearish turn to 0.7130 of a clearly impulsive personality, thus we believe that the big black wave V is underway. That been said,   we are looking lower as long as 0.7834 holds, so the bounce is most-likely only a corrective wave two that can stop near 0.7600 resistance.

AUDUSD, Daily

d audusd june 17 2016

On the lower time frame, AUDUSD descended five waves down from 0.7836 which is the most important and strong evidence of a bearish trend. But for now, the bearish impulsive trend is not ready to continue yet as the recent decline from 0.7500 to 0.7282 area has been unfolded in three legs. We know that three legs represent a corrective move, so we think it’s just another wave B) within the complex upward correction in wave 2-cricled that can stop near 0.7550-0.7600 area next week.

AUDUSD, 4H

4H audUSD june 17 2016