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  • EUR/CHF defends key support, but strong bounce remains elusive. 
  • A move above 1.07115 is needed to put the bulls back into the driver’s seat.

EUR/CHF is currently trading near 1.0670, having put in a session low below the 4-hour 200-candle simple moving average (SMA) located at 1.0662 during the overnight trade. 

Essentially, sellers failed to establish a strong foothold below the key SMA. Similar price action was seen last Friday when the dip below the SMA support was quickly reversed. 

The repeated defense of the crucial support does not necessarily imply a bullish reversal. The trend change would be confirmed only if the bounce from the 200-candle SMA ends up clearing the resistance at 1.07115. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the 4-hour chart and open the doors to 1.0769 (June 16 high hurdle on the 4-hour chart). 

On the other hand, consecutive 4-hour closes below the 200-candle SMA may invite stronger selling pressure, leading to deeper declines to 1.0578 (May 25 low). 

4-hour chart

Trend: Neutral

Technical levels