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  • EUR/GBP has been grinding higher through the pivot and supported by the 10 and 21-hr SMAs on pullbacks.
  • Bulls target a break of the 50-D SMA while price accumulates demand through daily trendline resistance.
  • Brexit angst knocks the wind out of sterling that is extending its bear channel decline below the 1.28 handle vs the greenback.  

EUR/GBP, that is currently trading at 0.8891 from a low of 0.8868 that has reached a high of 0.8900 so far, has been helped along by an improved session for European bourses but capped by EUR/JPY and EUR/USD meeting a blockade as Wall Street bulls find the path of least resistance may not be higher after all. The day started out well but there has been a lunchtime sell-off that puts the NASDAQ back in the red and tempers the gains in the DJIA and S&P 500 that have shaved off around 50% of the morning’s rally.  

EUR/GBP capped on market cross flows/volatility and political angst

  • UK’s Hammond: Deal dividend from Brexit to allow further funding for 2019 spending review

The greenback has also started off on the front foot this week with a slight bid in Asia that followed through in European and North America so far and sterling struggles. Cable has fallen from 1.2850 session highs to below the handle which made for a spike in EUR/GBP towards R1 located at 0.8903.  However, the upside may be limited in the cross considering the European political environment was just soured some more from the weekend news that  Merkel will not stand for reelection as CDU head following a blow when her coalition party lost significant support in the wealthy state of Hesse, home to the financial centre of Frankfurt. Both the CDU party and SPD were -10% on the previous election in the Hesse state. (The CDU polled just 28% of the vote. That was down from 38.3% in 2013. The SPD won 20% down from 30.7% in 2013. The Greens came in a close third at 19.5%). Such political uncertainty is not good news for the euro which already has enough on its plate with Italy and Greece – risks that Draghi recently addressed in the latest ECB press conference.  

Brexit weighs

The pound is also taking its cues from politics and the sentiment for a no deal Brexit is on the rise. Should there be a no deal second referendum, this could result in the UK remaining in the EU after March 29th.  A People’s Vote at the end of the Brexit negotiations is becoming more and more likely and there could be a push for an extension of Article 50 resulting in the UK fully remaining in the EU after March 29. Even UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond who has delivered the UK budget has put out the idea of a spring statement becoming a “full fiscal event” if needed – in other words, which could be an emergency budget if there is no deal.  

EUR/GBP levels

EUR/GBP has been up to test the 55-day ma at .8901. “We will wait to see if this fledgeling break higher is sustained and wait to see if the market CLOSES above this key resistance,” analysts at Commerzbank said. “The 0.8723 Fibo retracement guards the 8700/.8697 June low. Failure at 0.8697 would target the 0.8620 2018 low. Above 0.9011/31 sits the 0.9101 August high. Above there would target the .9161 Fibonacci resistance and then the 0.9291 2009-2018 downtrend line.”