Economists at Credit Suisse see GBP remaining at a risk of a “final rout” ahead of any Brexit deal being agreed, due to the necessary theatrics ahead of that outcome. A new test of EUR/GBP 0.9400 seems very possible in the coming weeks, at which point it would finally make sense to buy GBP looking for an eventual deal.
“For now, GBP is holding its own while trade talks with the EU are ongoing, given the ever-present chance of a breakthrough. Especially as option markets suggest that risk premia are already priced into the GBP options curve. But we still believe underlying UK economic fragility and the risk of a final showdown with the EU means GBP levels approaching 1.30 in GBP/USD and below 0.91 in EUR/GBP should be faded in the first half of October.”
“Extremely high open interest in short sterling rates futures and a dramatic bid for calls point to increasing expectations of a risk of negative rates in the UK in the year ahead. These moves have coincided with a phase of much higher implied GBP volatility in the aftermath of the introduction of the Internal Markets Bill. We see a good chance of a EUR/GBP spike to test 2020 highs around 0.9400, only after which would we wish to recommend fading GBP weakness and looking ahead to an eventual Brexit deal.”