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  • EUR/JPY came within a whisker of November highs at 125.14 and has since reversed sharply back below the 125.00 level.
  • The pair still trades with reasonable gains on the day, however, as JPY broadly ends a bad month with a whimper.

EUR/JPY came within 1 pip of matching monthly highs set on 9 November in the immediate aftermath of the Pfizer/BioNtech announcement at 125.14. However, in the build-up to a choppy final 16:00GMT London fixing of the month, the pair sharply reversed and has now dropped back below 125.00 to trade in the 124.60s.

Month-end flows dominate, but economic fundamentals to take over as the week progresses

Difficult to predict month-end flows have been dominant in financial markets today; many banks were suggesting USD selling, which was initially seen before being unwound prior to the 16:00GMT London Fix. Meanwhile, US equities dumped shortly after the open, amid a number of high-profile institutions touting sell signals. The S&P 500 currently trades 0.8% lower on the day, but still holds onto gains of more than 10% on the month.

The euro and yen have also been buffeted by month-end flows. But with this short-lived phenomenon now largely over, focus ought to return to the usual themes driving the two currencies; risk appetite, central banks and economic fundamentals.

In particular, JPY traders will be watching for any hints that US states are moving further into lockdown, something which could support JPY vs its G10 peers including EUR. Moreover, Japanese November manufacturing and services PMIs are released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, which ought to garner some attention, as should speeches from BoJ’s Amamiya and Suzuki.

Meanwhile, EUR traders very much expect a hefty dose of easing from the ECB on 16 December and will be looking for further confirmation of as much from ECB President Christine Lagarde (speaking on Tuesday) and ECB Chief Economist Lane (speaking on Wednesday). Meanwhile, November Consumer Price Inflation is likely to be very soft and is released on Wednesday, while traders will also be watching Eurozone retail sales on Thursday.

EUR/JPY double top?

With EUR/JPY strongly rejecting resistance at the previous monthly high at 125.14, a double top has been put in. If this does turn out to be a meaningful double top, eyes will be on support just below the 124.00 level (26 November lows) and then the pair’s 21 and 50-day moving averages just above 123.50. Below that at the 123.00 level, there is also strong support (2 and 15 October lows and 18, 19 and 20 November lows).

However, it might not be current to argue that EUR/JPY is a double top given that is has actually tested this region four times over the past two months; in mid-October, the pair rejected the 125.00 level twice. Thus, this might signal that a convincing upside break of the 125.00 level is coming imminently, which would open the door for a move to the upside and towards Summer highs between 126.50-127.00.

EUR/JPY four hour chart

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