EUR/JPY created an inverted bearish hammer yesterday, confirming an end of the rally from the March 8 low of 124.27. A bullish-to-bearish reversal, however, would be confirmed if the JPY cross closes below 126.35 today, validating the bearish hammer candle.
The probability of the pair closing below 126.35 today would rise if the sideways channel seen in the hourly chart is breached to the downside.
Acceptance below 126.35 would confirm a channel breakdown and open the doors for a deeper sell-off to 125.53 (50% Fib R of the recent rally). As of writing, the pair is trading at 126.20.
Daily chart
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4-hour chart
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Trend: Bearish
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